To support Singapore's ambitious sustainable mobility goals, ENGIE Impact utilised advanced modeling of electricity demand for EV charging points to help secure approximately 4,500 charging points for CDG ENGIE.
Singapore aims to reduce peak land transport emissions by 80% by or around mid-century. It is estimated that switching from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) could reduce carbon emissions by 1.5 to 2 million tonnes, or about 4% of total national emissions if all light vehicles run on electricity.
To support the adoption of EVs, the government has adopted a three-pronged approach through tax incentives, regulations and standards, and EV charger deployment.
The accessibility of charging infrastructure is vital for encouraging EV adoption. In 2021, the government announced a target to deploy 60,000 EV charging points (EVCPs) by 2030, of which 20,000 would be on private premises and 40,000 in public car parks, as part of the Singapore Green Plan 2030.
In 2022, the Land & Transport Authority (LTA) in Singapore launched a tender for the installation of up to 22,600 EV charging points at 1,964 public housing (HDB) car parks across the island.
In alignment with ENGIE’s mission to accelerate the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy, ENGIE Southeast Asia bid for this tender together with one of the world’s largest land transport companies, ComfortDelGro (CDG), with support from ENGIE Impact’s global team, including mobility and local experts.
To support the business model used by ENGIE and CDG in their bid, ENGIE Impact conducted a study to determine EV fleet penetration in HDBs and its related electricity demand when charging at home or when parked in HDBs. It further made projections to determine the ideal additional EVCP deployment until 2035 based on forecasted demand, EV penetration and international benchmarks.
While global adoption of EVs has exceeded expectations and projections are forecasting explosive growth, understanding the local context — such as the government’s ambitions for clean mobility, car ownership trends, and related subsidies — was paramount for estimating EV car penetration in the country. Parameters such as the vehicle registration or vehicle quota system (Certificate of Entitlement, COE) and average car ownership duration were also critical for setting up adequate car fleet estimates adapted to Singapore’s city-state context. COE price volatility and local regulations applicable to this system were key inputs considered when tailoring the EV penetration model to reflect local circumstances.
We started with a top-down approach, calculating the evolution of the population living in HDBs within five regions of interest (i.e., population demographics by region and dwelling type combined with projected statistics for HDB car ownership) and total car fleet projections. These high-level figures enabled us to start with the right set of data for the EVCP load forecast modeling exercise. We then performed the following steps to calculate electricity demand from EVs parked in HDBs:
Next, we implemented an in-depth top-down and bottom-up approach to calculate the appropriate EVCP rollout deployment across the 2022-2035 horizon. Installing EVCPs in apartment buildings is still a new endeavour. There are few examples of similar systems around the world and few experiences with it are documented in the literature. ENGIE Impact therefore calculated the EVCP rollout across the time horizon based on three different methodologies in order to build robust projections, using local and international benchmarks where relevant.
Backed by ENGIE Impact’s in-depth market study forecasting electricity demand for a broad EVCP rollout across Singapore, the consortium won its bid to deploy 4,500 EVCPs in the West and North regions. This further cements CDG ENGIE as one of Singapore’s largest EV charging operators with operations spanning across the island. The tender was divided into 10 different concession packages totaling 22,600 charging stations, demonstrating the strong interest for this fast-growing market.
The expertise that the ENGIE Group brought to bear in developing CDG ENGIE’s bid for the Land & Transport Authority tender demonstrates that it is uniquely prepared to become a competitive and strategic player in the growing sustainable mobility industry. Harnessing local knowledge and international experience from similar projects, ENGIE Impact put together an in-depth modeling scenario that made a solid business case and improved the competitiveness of the financial bid. This was a key differentiator that gave the Singapore authorities the confidence to award CDG ENGIE with two concessions, further cementing its status as a leading EV infrastructure developer in the country.
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