Weekly Energy Market Watch | ENGIE Impact

Weekly Energy Market Watch

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Jonathan Lee Manager, Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence, ENGIE Impact
Rick Margolin Director, Renewables Advisory, ENGIE Impact
Energy Market
Natural Gas
Energy Prices
United States

Market Commentary | Week Ending 2/16/2024

Energy prices retreat on mild winter temperatures.
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Monday 2/12

The Mar-2024 NYMEX natural gas contract declined 7.9 cents to $1.768 per MMBtu after updated weekend weather forecasts suggested the mid-February cold pattern was going to be short-lived. The Mar-2024 WTI crude oil contract closed 8 cents higher at $76.92 per barrel after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to root out the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in the southern city of Rafah. Equity markets traded in a mixed fashion even as investors cheered another round of positive earnings from the tech sector.

Tuesday 2/13

Natural gas continued to grind lower in an effort to send a signal to the producing community that the market was oversupplied amid weak weather-driven demand. The front-month contract settled 7.9 cents lower at $1.689. Crude climbed 95 cents higher to $77.87 on supply concerns after the U.S. rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Equities tumbled lower after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported consumer inflation rose a larger-than-expected 0.4% in January.

Wednesday 2/14

Natural gas slid 8.0 cents lower to $1.609 ahead of Thursday’s storage report, which was expected to show a draw around 70 Bcf that would compare to the 5-year average 149 Bcf draw. Oil prices fell $1.23 to $76.64 after the EIA reported a massive 12.0 million barrel increase in crude inventories. Stocks pressed higher after Chicago Fed President Goolsbee tried to reassure investors rate cuts could still be on the table this year.

Thursday 2/15

Natural gas edged 2.8 cents lower to $1.581 after the EIA reported a weaker-than-expected 49 Bcf draw from storage, which widened the surplus compared to the 5-year average to 348 Bcf. Crude oil rebounded $1.39 to $78.03 after the International Energy Agency forecast demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day this year. Equities traded in positive territory even after the Commerce Department reported retail sales fell 0.8% during January.

Friday 2/16

The cost of gas settled 2.8 cents higher at $1.609 as traders covered short positions and attempted to establish a market bottom following eight consecutive sessions in the red. Crude advanced $1.16 to $79.19 as tensions in the Middle East overshadowed concerns over stubbornly high inflation. Equity markets turned lower after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed wholesale inflation climbed 0.3% in January.

Looking Ahead

Energy prices will struggle to rebound as above-normal temperatures are forecast for much of the nation through the end of February.

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Jonathan Lee joined ENGIE Impact in 2009 and has produced the Energy Market Watch newsletter for 15 years. He manages the Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence team, focusing on market intelligence and rate forecasting. Jonathan also has a background in Finance and Marketing.

Rick Margolin manages client projects towards the development of voluntary and compliance sustainability programs, evaluation of project opportunities, adoption, implementation and compliance. He also leads tracking of regulatory, legislative and policy environments for impacts on renewables and decarbonization markets.

Jonathan Lee Manager, Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence
Rick Margolin Director, Renewables Advisory

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