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Gas demand was down sharply Y/Y during the week but a coming heatwave and rising LNG demand are set to tighten the S/D balance.
Monday 6/22
Natural gas prices rose $0.020 compared to the prior week’s close to settle at $3.253 per MMBtu, as buyers brushed off opening weakness to lift the front-month contract into positive territory on near-term warming trends. On the macro front, crude oil futures fell as August WTI closed down $1.78 to settle at $74.82 per barrel following a breakthrough announcement regarding a U.S.-Iran maritime framework for the Strait of Hormuz. Tech and chipmaker stocks staged a prominent afternoon rebound, steering broader equity markets higher.
Tuesday 6/23
Natural gas prices plunged $0.106 compared to Monday’s settle to close at $3.147 per MMBtu, completely erasing the previous day’s gains as near-term weather models dialed back extreme heat across the eastern half of the country. In broader commodity news, oil prices plummeted for a consecutive session as global shipping anxieties continued to ease, driving August WTI crude oil down $1.61 compared to Monday’s settle to close at $73.21 per barrel. Equity markets finished sharply lower as an early technology bounce faded dramatically late in the afternoon.
Wednesday 6/24
Natural gas prices rebounded, adding $0.074 compared to Tuesday’s close to settle at $3.221 per MMBtu as updated weather models teased a return of peak summer heating across major consuming regions. Meanwhile, the crude oil complex suffered a steep leg down, plummeting nearly 4% as August WTI crude oil lost $2.87 compared to Tuesday’s close to settle at $70.34 per barrel on intensifying bearish market sentiment. Equity markets closed marginally lower but stabilized late in the day as a prominent rotation out of the energy sector weighed on indexes.
Thursday 6/25
Natural gas prices surged, jumping $0.122 from the previous session to settle at $3.343 per MMBtu as traders weighed an unexpectedly smaller storage injection and intensifying summer heat forecasts. The crude oil complex reversed early midday losses, with August WTI crude oil rallying $1.58 compared to Wednesday’s settle to close at $71.92 per barrel. Equity markets enjoyed a broad relief rally.
Friday 6/26
Natural gas prices fell in a long-liquidation pullback, as the July contract expired and August took over as front month. The August contract shed $0.112 to settle at $3.231 per MMBtu. WTI crude oil suffered a steep decline, with the August contract dropping $2.69 to settle at $69.23 per barrel as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz eased global supply anxieties. Equity markets retreated in late-week trading.
Looking Ahead
The 2026 U.S. LNG export pace will be elevated amid a minimized maintenance season due to the Iran war’s impact on global supply.
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