Weekly Energy Market Watch

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Jonathan Lee Senior Energy Market Intelligence Manager at ENGIE Impact
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Market Commentary | Week Ending 11/15

Natural gas turns lower on moderating temperature forecast.

Monday 11/11

The Dec-2019 NYMEX natural gas contract plunged 15.2 cents lower to $2.637 per MMBtu as weekend weather forecasts for the 8-14-day period showed a crack in the cold that’s gripped the eastern half of the country during the first half of November. The Dec-2019 WTI crude oil contract slid 38 cents to $56.86 per barrel as traders locked in profits amid trade uncertainty. Equity markets traded in a mixed fashion on a light volume Veteran’s Day trading session after President Trump said trade talks were moving along nicely.

Tuesday 11/12

Natural gas edged another 1.6 cents lower to settle at $2.621 after dry gas production climbed to a record 95 Bcf per day. Crude closed 6 cents lower at $56.80 after delegates from OPEC and an alliance of other oil producers indicated they were likely to maintain current production quotas through next year. Equities were mostly unchanged as investors waited for guidance from a pair of speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.

Wednesday 11/13

Natural gas dipped 2.1 cents lower to $2.600 ahead of Thursday’s storage report, which was expected to show a small single-digit build and would compare to the 5-year average 30 Bcf injection. Oil prices rebounded 32 cents to $57.12 after OPEC Secretary General Barkindo said they were considering upgrading their oil demand outlook and may cut the U.S. oil output forecast amid signs of slowing shale production. Stocks managed to lock in late-session gains after Powell suggested the Fed was comfortable with interest rates at their current level.

Thursday 11/14

Natural gas gained 4.7 cents to settle at $2.647 after the EIA reported a slim 3 Bcf injection into storage that trimmed the surplus to the 5-year average to just 2 Bcf. Crude lost 35 cents to close at $56.77 after the EIA revealed a 2.2-Million-barrel increase in oil inventories. Equity markets were mixed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted weakness in the manufacturing sector during his second speech of the week.

Friday 11/15

Natural gas climbed 4.1 cents higher to $2.688 as updated weather forecasts called for below-normal temperatures to remain in the East through the end of the month. The cost of oil closed 95 cents higher at $57.72 after Baker Hughes revealed oil-directed rigs fell by 10 to 674 rigs, the fourth consecutive weekly decline. Stocks pushed higher after the Commerce Department reported a 0.3% monthly rise in retail sales.

Looking Ahead

Natural gas traders will continue to closely monitor weather forecasts for signs of demand-elevating cold temperatures.

Also, be sure to register for our Winter Energy Market Outlook webinar, Thursday, December 5th.

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