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Natural gas rebounds as traders focus on mid-June weather forecasts.
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Monday 6/2
The Jul-2025 NYMEX natural gas contract jumped 24.7 cents higher to $3.694 per MMBtu after weekend weather models turned a bit more supportive for cooling demand during the middle of June and as the pace of production declined by 1.2 Bcf/day to103.7 Bcf/day. The Jul-2025 WTI crude oil contract pressed $1.73 higher to $62.52 on escalating geopolitical risk after Ukraine destroyed more than 40 Russian planes deep in Russia’s territory. Equity markets were moderately higher even after the Institute of Supply Management revealed manufacturing activity slowed during May.
Tuesday 6/3
Natural gas inched 2.8 cents higher to $3.722 even as weather models downgraded the heat in the East for the middle of June and after LNG exports slipped to 13.0 Bcf per day. Crude climbed 89 cents higher to $63.41 after wildfires in Alberta forced operators to cut output by 274,500 barrels per day. Equities advanced after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said an interest rate cut may occur before the end of the year.
Wednesday 6/4
The cost of gas dipped 0.6 cents lower to $3.716 ahead of Thursday’s storage report, which was expected to show another build around 100 Bcf that would compare to the 5-year average 98 Bcf injection. Oil closed 56 cents lower at $62.85 even after the EIA reported a 4.3-million-barrel drop in oil inventories. Stocks were mixed on the day after new private payrolls increased at a much slower pace than the month prior.
Thursday 6/5
Natural gas slipped 3.9 cents lower to $3.677 after the EIA reported a higher-than-expected 122 Bcf injection to storage, which widened the surplus compared to the 5-year average to 117 Bcf. Equities traded in the red even after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call to discuss tariffs. Crude settled 52 cents higher at $63.37 on hopes for a trade resolution following news that the U.S. and China agreed to more trade talks.
Friday 6/6
Natural gas pressed 10.7 cents higher to $3.784 as forecasts called an increased probability of hotter temperatures during the second half of June. Crude bounced $1.21 higher to $64.58 on escalating geopolitical tensions after Russia launched the largest air attack of the war in response to Ukraine’s drone raid. Equity markets surged higher after the Labor Department after the Labor Department reported 139,000 jobs were created during May.
Looking Ahead
Energy prices are likely to turn higher as soon as weather forecasts advertise sustained heat in the major consuming regions.
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Jonathan Lee joined ENGIE Impact in 2009 and has produced the Energy Market Watch newsletter for 15 years. He manages the Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence team, focusing on market intelligence and rate forecasting. Jonathan also has a background in Finance and Marketing.
Rick Margolin manages client projects towards the development of voluntary and compliance sustainability programs, evaluation of project opportunities, adoption, implementation and compliance. He also leads tracking of regulatory, legislative and policy environments for impacts on renewables and decarbonization markets.
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