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Natural gas edges lower following first storage build of the season.
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Monday 3/17
The Apr-2025 NYMEX natural gas contract lost 8.6 cents to close at $4.018 per MMBtu on expectations for weaker demand as weather models continued to trend more seasonal. The Apr-2025 WTI crude oil contract gained 40 cents to $67.58 per barrel on supply concerns after President Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for any future attack by the Houthis in the Red Sea. Equity markets pushed higher even after the Commerce Department reported retail sales inched a weaker-than-expected 0.2% higher during February.
Tuesday 3/18
Natural gas settled 3.4 cents higher at $4.052 as planned seasonal pipeline maintenance on major systems reduced the pace of production by nearly 2 Bcf/day to an estimated 103.3 Bcf/ day. Crude slid 68 cents lower to $66.90 despite heightened geopolitical risks after a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas broke down. Equities traded in negative territory on concerns over how tariff risks would impact the central bank’s economic outlook.
Wednesday 3/19
The cost of gas jumped 19.5 cents higher to $4.247 on strong LNG exports and maintenance related output declines ahead of Thursday’s storage report, which was expected to show a small injection. Oil prices inched 26 cents higher to $67.16 after the EIA reported a 1.7-million-barrel increase in oil inventories. Stocks advanced even after the Fed extended its wait-and-see posture on interest rates and downwardly revised its outlook for growth for the year.
Thursday 3/20
Natural gas tumbled 27.2 cents lower to $3.975 after the EIA reported a 9 Bcf injection to storage, the first build of the season that narrowed the deficit compared to the 5-year average to 190 Bcf. The Apr-2025 WTI crude oil contract closed and expired $1.10 higher at $68.26 on concerns a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal was in jeopardy after Russia struck Ukrainian energy assets overnight. Equities were marginally changed even after the National Association of Realtors revealed solid growth in existing home sales.
Friday 3/21
Natural gas inched 0.5 cents higher to $3980 as traders tested support at the psychologically significant $4.00 level. The new prompt May-2025 WTI crude oil contract gained 21 cents to $68.28 on the potential for tighter supplies after U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports impacted Chinese refineries. Equity markets landed in the green as investors contemplated the Federal Reserve’s approach to holding rates steady for the foreseeable future.
Looking Ahead
Natural gas is likely to trade in a narrower range as traders gauge the pace of storage injections early in the refill season.
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Jonathan Lee joined ENGIE Impact in 2009 and has produced the Energy Market Watch newsletter for 15 years. He manages the Energy & Sustainability Analytics Intelligence team, focusing on market intelligence and rate forecasting. Jonathan also has a background in Finance and Marketing.
Rick Margolin manages client projects towards the development of voluntary and compliance sustainability programs, evaluation of project opportunities, adoption, implementation and compliance. He also leads tracking of regulatory, legislative and policy environments for impacts on renewables and decarbonization markets.
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