Weather Swings, Fundamental Shifts Drive Turbulent…

September 16, 2025

October natural gas futures advanced Tuesday as shifting weather patterns, tropical activity and changes in LNG feed gas demand and production sent mixed signals, fueling a turbulent trading session.

At A Glance:

Futures hit $3.138/MMBtu intraday high
Warmer weather, LNG support
Production, tropical activity pressure

Natural gas futures were “all over the place,” Mizuho Securities USA’s executive director Robert Yawger said.

Prompt-month futures settled up 6.0 cents at $3.103, below the high but well above the intraday and 12-day low of $2.869, versus the 11-month low of $2.622 on Aug. 25, Yawger noted.

Meanwhile, NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. was unchanged on the day at $2.470 in a day of mixed trade as regional prices varied based on demand outlooks driven by shifts in weather.

Weather forecasts are playing the largest role in upward price movement as warmer temperatures could provide a last gasp of cooling demand before fall temperatures arrive, with October quickly entering 10–14 day models. Above-normal temperatures in October turn bearish for prices as they delay early heating demand.

Jonathan Lee, Manager of Energy and Sustainability Analytics Intelligence

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Weather Swings, Fundamental Shifts Drive Turbulent Natural Gas Session

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